Today’s Signals

Today’s published calls, scoped to your markets, with the track record behind them — how often they were right, and whether following them made money. Those are two different questions and we answer them separately.

Don’t read the model score as a ranking. Our own calibration work shows our confidence figures carry almost no ordering information and overstate badly: across our published calls the delivered hit-rate sits around 47–61% whatever confidence we attach, and the 90–95% band delivered 46.9%. Weighted across every band we are roughly 20 percentage points overconfident. This list is still assembled by a confidence label — today’s calls are the ones our batch labelled most confident, in that order. That label is coarse, and at some horizons every call in the list carries the same value, so the Model score column shows each call’s own raw score instead. Changing how the list is chosen needs a fix behind this page and is next; re-fitting the calibrator follows. Until both land, judge the list by the record below, not by any score.

High-confidence predictions · today

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